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Chris Rai 27fe5af164 cost service: update estimates from migration plan v1.1

- Platform base: 80 cores / 544GB RAM (from migration plan)
- Cloud rates: $0.35/core-hr, $0.10/GB-hr, $17/15min managed services
- On-prem rates: $0.015/core-hr, $0.004/GB-hr, $1.50/15min
- Based on ~$1M/year Azure spend, ~92% savings with on-prem
- Updated README with migration plan references

2026-02-05 10:30:09 -05:00

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Cost Service

Per-vehicle cost estimation service for capacity planning and cloud vs on-prem comparison.

Overview

This service estimates the cost of running cloud services per VIN by:

Querying vehicle activity from ClickHouse (message counts)
Estimating resource usage based on activity level
Applying cost rates for cloud vs on-prem hosting
Storing aggregated cost data for reporting

Cost Estimation Methodology

Cost Model

The cost model separates fixed platform costs from variable per-VIN costs:

Total Cost = Platform Base Cost + (Per-VIN Cost × Number of VINs) + Managed Services

Whether you have 100 vehicles or 100,000, you still need Kafka, databases, and gateway services running. That's your platform base cost. Then each additional vehicle adds a small marginal cost on top.

Platform Base Resources (Fixed)

What it takes to run the cloud services platform (from migration plan v1.1):

Component	CPU (cores)	Memory (GB)	Notes
VM 1-4: Core Services	16	64	Kafka, OTA, Valet, Auth/APIs
VM 5: Analytics Primary	32	256	ClickHouse, Ditto, Beacon, Jetfire
VM 6: Analytics Secondary	32	256	Optimus, Cargo, Vehicle Analytics
Total Platform Base	80	544	Based on migration plan

Per-VIN Resources (Marginal)

Incremental resources needed for each additional connected vehicle:

Activity Level	Messages/15min	CPU (millicores)	Memory (MB)
Low	< 100	50	80
Medium	100-1000	75	120
High	> 1000	100	160

Cost Rates

Resource	Cloud (Azure)	On-Prem/Bare Metal
CPU/core-hour	$0.35	$0.015
Memory/GB-hour	$0.10	$0.004
Managed Services/15min	$17.00	$1.50

Why On-Prem is ~90-95% Cheaper

Platform base: Same workload, but cloud charges ~20x more for managed services
Per-VIN compute: Cloud VMs cost ~20x more than amortized bare metal
Managed services: Event Hubs, CosmosDB, Azure DB for PostgreSQL have significant markup vs self-hosted

Savings Calculation

Platform Base Cost = (80 cores × rate + 544 GB × rate) × hours
Per-VIN Cost = (0.05 cores × rate + 0.08 GB × rate) × hours × activity_multiplier
Total Cost = Platform Base + (Per-VIN × VIN count) + Managed Services

Cloud Cost = Total with cloud rates
On-Prem Cost = Total with on-prem rates  
Savings = Cloud Cost - On-Prem Cost
Savings % = (Savings / Cloud Cost) × 100

Expected savings: ~90-95% with on-prem/bare metal hosting.

Projected Annual Costs

Based on ~$1M/year Azure spend (migration plan v1.1):

Metric	Cloud	On-Prem
Monthly Cost	~$83,000	~$7,000
Annual Cost	~$1,000,000	~$84,000
Annual Savings	~$916,000 (92%)	-

API Endpoints

GET /cost/vin/{vin}

Cost summary for a specific VIN.

GET /cost/fleet

Fleet-wide cost summary with top cost VINs.

GET /cost/summary?period=day|week|month

High-level cost summary for a time period.

GET /cost/comparison

Cloud vs on-prem cost comparison with projected annual savings.

GET /cost/report

Plain text report for terminal viewing.

Accessing the Report

The service is deployed internally on cec-prd-cluster-1 (no public ingress). To view the report:

# Quick one-liner
kubectl --context cec-prd-cluster-1 run curl-test --image=curlimages/curl --rm -it --restart=Never -- curl -s http://cost.default.svc.cluster.local:8077/cost/report

# Or port-forward and curl locally
kubectl --context cec-prd-cluster-1 port-forward svc/cost 8077:8077 &
curl http://localhost:8077/cost/report

Example Report Output

╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║                    COST SERVICE REPORT                           ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║  Period: 2026-01-05 to 2026-02-05
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║  FLEET OVERVIEW                                                  ║
║  ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ║
║  Active Vehicles:     3229                                         
║  Cloud Cost:          $9761.61                                      
║  On-Prem Cost:        $677.88                                      
║  Savings:             $9083.73 (93.1%)                             
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║  RESOURCE USAGE MODEL                                            ║
║  ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ║
║  Platform Base:       176 cores / 896 GB RAM (fixed)              
║  Per-VIN Marginal:    50 millicores / 82 MB RAM                   
║  Total Fleet:         337.5 cores / 1154.3 GB RAM                 
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║  COST FORMULA                                                    ║
║  ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ║
║  (Platform Base) + (Per-VIN × 3229 VINs) + Managed Services       
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║  COST RATES                                                      ║
║  ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ║
║  Cloud:   CPU $0.30/core-hr   Memory $0.080/GB-hr                 
║  On-Prem: CPU $0.02/core-hr   Memory $0.005/GB-hr                 
║  Base Infra: Cloud $10.00/15min   On-Prem $2.50/15min             
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║  ANNUAL PROJECTION (based on current usage)                      ║
║  ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ║
║  Cloud Annual:        $117139.28                                      
║  On-Prem Annual:      $8134.50                                      
║  Annual Savings:      $109004.77                                      
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝

TOP COST VEHICLES:
VIN                    CPU (mc)   RAM (MB)      Cloud $    On-Prem $  Savings %
───────────────────    ────────   ────────   ──────────   ──────────   ────────
VCF1UBU21PG008884           100        164        14.10         1.04      92.6%
VCF1EBU24PG007242           100        164        14.10         1.04      92.6%
VCF1ZBU29PG006267           100        164        14.10         1.04      92.6%
VCF1EBU26PG007307            75        123        13.41         0.99      92.6%
VCF1EBU22PG011967            50         82        12.77         0.93      92.8%
...

Note: Report generated 2026-02-05. Costs accumulate over time as the collector runs every 15 minutes.

Configuration

Env Var	Description	Default
CLICKHOUSE_HOST	Local CH for storing cost data	localhost
REMOTE_CLICKHOUSE_HOST	Dev cluster CH for VIN activity	-
COLLECTOR_INTERVAL_MINUTES	How often to collect metrics	15

Limitations

Resource estimates are approximations, not actual measurements
Cost rates are simplified and don't reflect all real-world factors
On-prem costs exclude significant operational overhead
Designed for business case illustration, not precise billing

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