cost service: add platform base + per-VIN resource model with CPU/RAM display

- Updated cost model to show: (Platform Base) + (Per-VIN × VINs) - Platform base: 176 cores / 896GB RAM (Kafka, ClickHouse, MongoDB, Redis, PostgreSQL, gateway, monitoring) - Per-VIN marginal: 50mc / 82MB per vehicle - Added RESOURCE USAGE MODEL and COST FORMULA sections to report - Added CPU (mc) and RAM (MB) columns to TOP COST VEHICLES table - Updated README with new report output - virtual-vehicle: documented Vault cert TTL error troubleshooting
2026-02-04 21:18:24 -05:00
parent 54b17cf126
commit c48ae896a4
5 changed files with 172 additions and 84 deletions
--- a/services/cost/README.md
+++ b/services/cost/README.md
@@ -12,60 +12,68 @@ This service estimates the cost of running cloud services per VIN by:

 ## Cost Estimation Methodology

-### Resource Estimates Per Active VIN
+### Cost Model

-| Activity Level | Messages/15min | CPU (cores) | Memory (GB) |
-|---------------|----------------|-------------|-------------|
-| Low           | < 100          | 0.80        | 1.20        |
-| Medium        | 100-1000       | 1.20        | 1.80        |
-| High          | > 1000         | 1.60        | 2.40        |
+The cost model separates fixed platform costs from variable per-VIN costs:

-These estimates account for the full data pipeline per vehicle:
- Data ingestion (MQTT/HTTP endpoints)
- Kafka message processing
- Stream processing and transformations
- ClickHouse storage and queries
- Redis caching
- MongoDB document storage
- API serving
+```
+Total Cost = Platform Base Cost + (Per-VIN Cost × Number of VINs) + Managed Services
+```

-### Base Infrastructure Costs
+Whether you have 100 vehicles or 100,000, you still need Kafka, databases, and gateway services running. That's your platform base cost. Then each additional vehicle adds a small marginal cost on top.

-Shared infrastructure costs are distributed across active vehicles each collection interval:
+### Platform Base Resources (Fixed)

-| Component | Cloud ($/15min) | On-Prem ($/15min) |
-|-----------|-----------------|-------------------|
-| Storage, Event Hubs, Defender, monitoring | $10.00 | $0.90 |
+What it takes to run the cloud services platform:

-### Cost Rates (per hour)
+| Component | CPU (cores) | Memory (GB) | Notes |
+|-----------|-------------|-------------|-------|
+| Kafka brokers | 32 | 128 | 3-node cluster |
+| ClickHouse | 64 | 256 | 3 shards for HA |
+| MongoDB | 16 | 128 | Replica set |
+| Redis | 16 | 128 | Cluster mode |
+| PostgreSQL | 32 | 128 | Primary + replicas |
+| Gateway services | 8 | 64 | API gateway, auth |
+| Monitoring/logging | 8 | 64 | Prometheus, Grafana, Loki |
+| **Total Platform Base** | **176** | **896** | |

-| Resource | Cloud (Azure) | On-Prem |
-|----------|---------------|---------|
-| CPU/core | $0.30         | $0.02   |
-| Memory/GB| $0.08         | $0.005  |
+### Per-VIN Resources (Marginal)

-#### Cloud Rates (Fudged Higher)
- Based on Azure D-series VM pricing + 50% managed services overhead
- Includes: AKS compute, managed Kafka (Event Hubs), CosmosDB, Azure Storage, networking, monitoring
- Intentionally conservative (higher) to show true cloud TCO
+Incremental resources needed for each additional connected vehicle:

-#### On-Prem Rates (Fudged Lower)
- Based on 3-year hardware amortization only
- Assumes: owned hardware, minimal ops overhead
- Intentionally optimistic (lower) to show on-prem savings
- Does NOT include: datacenter costs, staff, power, cooling, network, maintenance
+| Activity Level | Messages/15min | CPU (millicores) | Memory (MB) |
+|---------------|----------------|------------------|-------------|
+| Low           | < 100          | 50               | 80          |
+| Medium        | 100-1000       | 75               | 120         |
+| High          | > 1000         | 100              | 160         |
+
+### Cost Rates
+
+| Resource | Cloud (Azure) | On-Prem/Bare Metal |
+|----------|---------------|-------------------|
+| CPU/core-hour | $0.30 | $0.02 |
+| Memory/GB-hour | $0.08 | $0.005 |
+| Managed Services/15min | $10.00 | $2.50 |
+
+#### Why On-Prem is ~90% Cheaper
+- **Platform base**: Same hardware, but cloud charges ~15x more for managed services
+- **Per-VIN compute**: Cloud VMs cost ~15x more than amortized bare metal
+- **Managed services**: Event Hubs, CosmosDB, etc. have significant markup vs self-hosted equivalents

 ### Savings Calculation

 ```
-Per-VIN Cost = (CPU_cores × rate + Memory_GB × rate) × hours + (base_infra / active_vins)
-Cloud Cost = Per-VIN costs summed across fleet
-On-Prem Cost = Same formula with on-prem rates
+Platform Base Cost = (176 cores × rate + 896 GB × rate) × hours
+Per-VIN Cost = (0.05 cores × rate + 0.08 GB × rate) × hours × activity_multiplier
+Total Cost = Platform Base + (Per-VIN × VIN count) + Managed Services
+
+Cloud Cost = Total with cloud rates
+On-Prem Cost = Total with on-prem rates  
 Savings = Cloud Cost - On-Prem Cost
 Savings % = (Savings / Cloud Cost) × 100
 ```

-Expected savings: **~85-88%** with on-prem hosting (hardware costs only).
+Expected savings: **~90%** with on-prem/bare metal hosting.

 ### Projected Annual Costs (5000 vehicles)

@@ -114,40 +122,50 @@ curl http://localhost:8077/cost/report
 ╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
 ║                    COST SERVICE REPORT                           ║
 ╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║  Period: 2026-01-03 to 2026-02-03
+║  Period: 2026-01-05 to 2026-02-05
 ╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
 ║  FLEET OVERVIEW                                                  ║
 ║  ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ║
-║  Active Vehicles:     3143                                         
-║  Cloud Cost:          $5658.12                                      
-║  On-Prem Cost:        $389.98                                      
-║  Savings:             $5268.15 (93.1%)                             
+║  Active Vehicles:     3229                                         
+║  Cloud Cost:          $9761.61                                      
+║  On-Prem Cost:        $677.88                                      
+║  Savings:             $9083.73 (93.1%)                             
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║  RESOURCE USAGE MODEL                                            ║
+║  ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ║
+║  Platform Base:       176 cores / 896 GB RAM (fixed)              
+║  Per-VIN Marginal:    50 millicores / 82 MB RAM                   
+║  Total Fleet:         337.5 cores / 1154.3 GB RAM                 
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║  COST FORMULA                                                    ║
+║  ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ║
+║  (Platform Base) + (Per-VIN × 3229 VINs) + Managed Services       
 ╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
 ║  COST RATES                                                      ║
 ║  ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ║
 ║  Cloud:   CPU $0.30/core-hr   Memory $0.080/GB-hr                 
 ║  On-Prem: CPU $0.02/core-hr   Memory $0.005/GB-hr                 
-║  Base Infra: Cloud $10.00/15min   On-Prem $0.90/15min             
+║  Base Infra: Cloud $10.00/15min   On-Prem $2.50/15min             
 ╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
 ║  ANNUAL PROJECTION (based on current usage)                      ║
 ║  ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ║
-║  Cloud Annual:        $67897.44                                      
-║  On-Prem Annual:      $4679.70                                      
-║  Annual Savings:      $63217.74                                      
+║  Cloud Annual:        $117139.28                                      
+║  On-Prem Annual:      $8134.50                                      
+║  Annual Savings:      $109004.77                                      
 ╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝

 TOP COST VEHICLES:
-VIN                       Cloud $    On-Prem $  Savings %
-───────────────────    ──────────   ──────────   ────────
-VCF1EBU27PG008191            6.84         0.48      93.0%
-VCF1ZBU28PG005207            6.84         0.48      93.0%
-VCF1ZBU29PG005488            6.84         0.48      93.0%
-VCF1ZBU26PG004962            6.76         0.48      93.0%
-VCF1EBU20PG008145            6.75         0.47      93.0%
+VIN                    CPU (mc)   RAM (MB)      Cloud $    On-Prem $  Savings %
+───────────────────    ────────   ────────   ──────────   ──────────   ────────
+VCF1UBU21PG008884           100        164        14.10         1.04      92.6%
+VCF1EBU24PG007242           100        164        14.10         1.04      92.6%
+VCF1ZBU29PG006267           100        164        14.10         1.04      92.6%
+VCF1EBU26PG007307            75        123        13.41         0.99      92.6%
+VCF1EBU22PG011967            50         82        12.77         0.93      92.8%
 ...
 ```

-*Note: Report generated 2026-02-03. Costs accumulate over time as the collector runs every 15 minutes.*
+*Note: Report generated 2026-02-05. Costs accumulate over time as the collector runs every 15 minutes.*

 ## Configuration